BACOLOD CITY, Negros Occidental, Philippines — State weather bureau Pagasa has warned that El Niño might persist until the first quarter of 2024 especially in the tropical Pacific, and is showing signs of strengthening in the coming months.
The phenomenon might “increase the likelihood of below-normal rainfall conditions, which could bring negative impacts (such as dry spells and droughts)”in some areas of the country.
Pagasa said above-normal rainfall conditions during the Southwest monsoon season (Habagat) may also be expected over the western part of the country.
According to the website of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, during El Niño, “the consistently low annual rainfall over river basins leads to a significant decrease in the water inflows in major reservoirs”.
The worsening decreases in inflow restricts water supply for domestic and irrigation water supply, thus causing water rationing in residential areas and reduction in irrigated farmlands.
NOAA adds that the agricultural sector is “affected by widespread water shortages induced by El Niño, which is also when crop production damage is highest, not only in upland and rainfed areas, but also in lowland irrigated areas”.
The high temperature and rapid evaporation of surface water during El Niño also create unfavorable conditions for marine fishes, according to NOAA, with production cycles, stunted fish growth, and fish mortalities from stress, poor water quality and disease leading to production losses.
El Niño-related droughts are also associated with indirect environmental effects.
Forest fire destruction has steadily increased in recent years.
