by Butch Bacaoco
As the Crop Year 2025-2026 milling campaign kicks off, sugar farmers are wondering what prices this new crop year will bring. Will there be a brisk demand for raw sugar in the early months of milling? Or will sugar prices follow the trajectory in the first three months of milling last crop year?
The SRA Sugar Supply and Demand Situation Report as of September 14, 2025 states that raw sugar production stands at 2,085,534 metric tons. With starting balance of 272,005 mt, total raw sugar supply is at 2,357,539 mt.
Domestic withdrawals of raw sugar stands at 1,916,585 mt, consisting of 1,208,591 for direct household consumption and 707,994 for refining. Add to that the 66,086 mt which was converted to “A” sugar for export to the US, bringing total domestic withdrawals to 1,982,671 mt.
The total raw sugar balance at millsite is 374,868 mt, with 19,905 mt raw sugar transferred to the refinery for refining, and leaving 354,963 mt raw sugar stock, as of September 14.
For refined sugar, total production as of September 14 stands at 618,421.35 mt (10.55% lower than the same period last crop year). Starting balance of refined sugar was 230,826.90 mt at the mills (62.50% higher than last crop year) and 77,692 mt imported refined sugar (81.03% lower than last crop year).
Aside from the locally produced and imported refined sugar stock balances, almost 400,000 mt (399,018.32 mt to be exact) of imported refined sugar entered the country, as of September 14. These imported sugar stocks comprise of 222,466.12 mt under Sugar Order No. 5 CY 2023-2024, and 176,552.20 mt under Sugar Order No. 8 CY 2024-2025.
The 230,826.90 mt refined sugar starting balance at the mills, the 77,692 mt starting balance of imported refined sugar, the 618,421.35 mt local refined sugar production and the 399,018.32 mt imported sugar which entered the country in CY 2024-2025 bring total refined sugar supply to 1,325,958.57 mt, as of September 14.
Total refined sugar withdrawals registered at 964,588.17 mt, consisting of 657,829.45 mt for domestic use and 306,758.72 mt from imports, broken down as: 44,575 mt (SO#6 CY2022-23), 18,525 mt (SO#7 CY 2022-23), 234,733.72 mt (SO#5 CY 2023-24) and 8,825 mt (SO#8 CY 2024-25).
The 306,758.72 mt refined sugar withdrawals comprise almost one-third (32%) of total refined sugar withdrawals, as of September 14.
Total refined sugar balance at refinery stands at 191,418.80 mt, plus the 169,951.60 mt balance of imported refined sugar, bring total physical refined sugar stocks at 361,370.40 mt, as of September 14.
The total raw sugar withdrawals of 1,982,671 mt, as of September 14, translates to an average monthly withdrawal of about 172,406.17 mt, with projected raw withdrawals of 91,950 mt for the remaining 16 days (September 15-30) until the end of CY 2024-2025.
Subtracting the 91,950 mt projected withdrawals from the 354,963 mt raw sugar stock, as of September 14, results to a projected raw sugar stock balance of 263,013 mt.
As to refined sugar, the total refined sugar withdrawals of 964,588.17 mt, as of September 14, translates to an average monthly withdrawal of 83,877.23 mt, with projected refined withdrawals of 44,734.52 mt for the remaining 16 days (September 15-30) until the end of CY 2024-2025.
Subtracting the 44,734.52 mt projected withdrawals from the 361,370.40 mt refined sugar stock, as of September 14, results to a projected refined sugar stock balance of 316,635.88 mt.
For Crop Year 2025-2026, sugar farmers are looking at a starting balance of 263,013 mt raw sugar, and 316,635.88 mt refined sugar.
Farmers should bear in mind that the 316,635.88 mt projected refined sugar stock balance does not include the any further entry of imported refined sugar under SO#8 CY 2024-2025 during the period September 15-30.
Out of the 424,000 mt refined sugar importation under SO#8 CY 2024-2025, only 176,552.20 mt has arrived, as of September 14. The balance of 247,447.80 mt will surely arrive not later than November 30, and will further add to the domestic refined sugar supply in the market during the early months of CY 2025-2026.
