11 DAYS LATER | Deaths, new cases, recoveries under MECQ

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BACOLOD CITY, Negros Occidental, Philippines – Bacolod City government has already placed the city in various degrees of Community Quarantine, from the General Community Quarantine last 15 March to 29 March, then to Enhanced Community Quarantine from for another two weeks.

Since the first community quarantine, Bacolod CoViD-19 cases have seen a rise in active cases, leading finally for the National Inter-Agency Task Force to put the city under a Modified Enhanced Community Quarantine starting 8 September 2020 in an effort to curb the cases.

New Normal protocol: Inspect the id’s and question where are you working.

DNX has gathered on the number since the MECQ started its implementation up to the 11th day (18 September which is the latest data). 

DNX culled the data from the Department of Health Western Visayas’ processed report.

The following are the conditions: 

  • September 8th will serve as baseline data, on the day that the MECQ was put in place;
  • Health Secretary, in justifying the IATF recommendation of putting the city under MECQ, said in a briefer that Bacolod, before the MECQ, had 462 had new cases in four days or an average of “135 (sic) new cases per day”.
  • Data does not include the data from the mass testing which were released 7 September.

The first data shows the 11-day trend of the new cases.

Data above shows that Bacolod started with 132 new cases.  Then steadily dipped from 132 to 86 in three days (86 in 11 September), before peaking at 162 last 17 September 2020, before dipping again by 118 cases by 18 September 2020.

Meanwhile, data above shows the new recoveries. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, a number of factors might contribute to recovery of a CoVid-19 patient.  Among these are the pre-existing health conditions (hypertension, and chronic medical conditions), as well as age. 

CDC determined that older patients (50-plus) have slower recovery rates than the younger patients. 

DNX, due to time constraints, was not able to get the age breakdown and pre-existing medical conditions and comorbidities of the individual patients.

The graph above shows the comparison between the number of recoveries (orange) vs the number of new cases (blue). 

The graph shows that, at the start of the MECQ, the number of new cases started from 132 then dropped to 44 on the 11th day. 

Meanwhile, the trend for the recoveries reversed, starting with a relatively low 15 recoveries in to 273 recoveries by 11th day (or a difference of 258 cases).

A total of 13 new deaths were recorded in the 11-day monitoring period.  As noted in the graph above, there were three new deaths on the start of monitoring, no new deaths for two days, until it peaked on 11 September 2020 with five. 

No new deaths were recorded after until the lone death in 17 September 2020, and then five new deaths.  A study published in Journal of the American Medical Association associated prevalence of CoViD-19 death a higher among those with older age, male sex, higher body mass index, coronary artery disease, active cancer, and the presence of hypoxemia (or low oxygen in the blood), liver dysfunction, and kidney dysfunction at ICU admission.

DNX, because of constraints in time, was not able to get the comorbid and medical conditions of those who expired because of the disease.

The graph above shows the total active cases in the city from 1,263 to a high of 1,531 on 17 September, to settling to 1306 by the 18 September of the 11th day of the MECQ. The total active cases for local transmission (which means that the infection could be within the community and not “imported”) in the 11th day is still higher than the first day of the MECQ. 

One factor could be the high number of new cases last 17 September 2020 (162, see previous graph) versus the overall lower number of recoveries.

The graph above shows the active cases for Locally Stranded Individuals, Authorized Persons Outside of Residence, and Overseas Filipino Workers. When compared to the local cases (see previous graph)  there is a steady decline in the number of LSI/APOR/OFW. 

The low numbers as compared to the local cases could be attributed to the temporary suspension of entry of returning Overseas Workers, LSIs and APOR into the province of Negros Occidental, and city last 7 September 2020.  The suspension has been lifted only last 16 September  2020, and the test results of those who were swabbed are not likely released yet

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