BACOLOD CITY – An international security adviser with years of experience working in some war-torn countries close to the Middle East and a local security expert do not believe the tension between the United States and Iran will develop soon into a global war.
Both spoke to DNX on condition of anonymity.
“Nothing is definite yet, this week and the following will be crucial,” the international security adviser told DNX through an online interview.
As netizens speculate, and call for preparations for World War 3, Greta (not her real name), pointed out that the conditions for a global war do not exist yet.
“There is still room for de-escalation or the lowering of tension between the parties involved,” she said.
Among the indicators, the expert and another local security consultant (who asked to be identified only as Jason) explained, are the following:
- the United Nations Security Council has not yet convened to discuss the conflict;
The 15-member Council is tasked with ensuring peace and security in the world. It counts five permanent members, China, France, Russian Federation, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
- major superpowers have not yet announced which side they are on;
- the US has not yet forward deployed ground troops and naval fleets to or near Iran.
“The situation is still developing, very fluid,” Greta said though she sounded puzzled why ballistic missiles fired by Iran managed to hit two bases that house American troops in Iraq earlier this week.
Jason, on his part said in a phone interview that compared to the US-Iraq war, the US has not yet reached invasion mode.
In 2003, the US-led “Coalition of the Willing” launched combined offensives on Iraq that allegedly took part in the September 2011 attacks in the US and had been building weapons of mass destruction.
He pointed out: a key indication is when the US president has already deployed carrier battle groups to a particular conflict area.
Battle groups are composed of aircraft carriers and escort ships that can launch sea-based aircraft and missile attacks.
But even if the conflict escalates or armed hostilities do break out, there is a possibility that this would be confined to a regional war that might spill over to neighboring countries of Iran.
The Merriam-Webster Online Dictionary defines a “world war” as “a war engaged in by all or most of the principal nations of the world.”
“It is now just an acoustic war, a propaganda war to see who flinches first,” Jason said.
Greta added if there the US had indeed forward-deployed, it could be small, elite units under the Joint Special Operations Command (JSOC).
The JSOC counts among its operating units, according to the American Special Ops webpage, the US Navy’s SEAL Team Six, 1st Special Forces Operational Detachment-Delta or Delta Force, the Regimental Reconnaissance Company or 75th Ranger Regiment, the Intelligence Support Activity, and the 24th Special Tactics Squadron.
SEAL Team Six was the unit that killed Osama bin Laden in Pakistan in 2011 May.
Bin Laden is the suspected leader of the al Qaeda terrorist group that, the US claimed, planned, coordinated, and executed the 9/11 attacks. (Read also: MIDDLE EAST CRISIS UPDATE: Abu Dhabi embassy ready to send Pinoys home)